Leveraged bitcoin bulls took the heaviest four-hour hit since Oct. 14 on Saturday, as bitcoin dropped under $80,000 and exchanges forced-closed hundreds of millions of dollars in long positions. The size of the flush shows how much long exposure traders had rebuilt even after a week of bitcoin ETF outflows and rising geopolitical risk.

The damage spread beyond bitcoin. Total liquidations for the day topped $800 million across more than 200,000 traders, with ether longs taking losses nearly as large as bitcoin’s despite ether’s smaller market size.

Key Takeaways

  • $404.15 million of the $436.44 million liquidated in four hours to 1 p.m. ET Saturday were long positions, according to CoinGlass data cited by The Block.
  • Bitcoin’s intraday low ranged from about $79,057 to $79,464 across outlets before it recovered toward $80,100-$80,138.
  • Spot bitcoin ETFs logged a second straight day of net outflows on Friday ($137.94 million), after a $635.49 million outflow on Thursday, per SoSoValue data via The Block.
  • BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said he closed out his family office’s directional book, citing “dicey” macro and geopolitical conditions.
  • The sell-off coincided with reports that the U.S. is evacuating personnel from Middle East embassies over threats tied to Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal and an intelligence memo cited by CoinDesk.

The four-hour liquidation wave

Of the $436.44 million liquidated between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET Saturday, $404.15 million were longs, according to CoinGlass data reported by The Block. Most of it came in two bursts: $208.21 million in the 15 minutes from 10:15 a.m. ET as bitcoin fell from about $80,640 to $80,100, then $131.17 million in the 15 minutes from 11:15 a.m. Long liquidations from 8 a.m. to noon ET totaled $401.91 million, the largest four-hour figure since the night of Oct. 14, when $505.57 million in longs were wiped out.

Bitcoin bottomed around $79,280 near 11:20 a.m. ET before climbing back to $80,138 by 1 p.m., per The Block’s price tracking. As the price recovered, shorts accounted for $8.35 million of the $10.62 million liquidated in the hour to 1:09 p.m. ET.

Full-day totals vary by source. The Block put 24-hour liquidations at $815.26 million, up 218% from the prior day, across 201,012 traders. CoinGlass figures cited by Yahoo Finance showed $837.12 million across 227,681 traders, with longs at 82.8%. fxdailyreport cited a similar $835 million to $837 million range and about 200,000 traders, with longs near 83%. Open interest in crypto futures fell 2.2% to $140.10 billion over the same period, per The Block.

Ether keeps pace with bitcoin

Ether’s four-hour liquidations totaled $136.72 million against bitcoin’s $158.45 million, The Block reported, even though ether’s market capitalization is roughly a fifth of bitcoin’s. Longs made up 94.2% of bitcoin liquidations and 92.7% of ether’s over that window. The largest single order of the past 24 hours, per both The Block and Yahoo Finance, was an $11.85 million ETH-USDT long on Binance, closed at $2,307.65. Binance accounted for $226.07 million of the four-hour total (96% longs), while Hyperliquid saw $70.47 million liquidated, 99.8% of it longs.

Over the full 24 hours, Yahoo Finance reported bitcoin liquidations of $232.55 million against ether’s $181.51 million, both more than 93% long. Price moves also varied by source and timestamp: The Block had bitcoin down 1.9% at $80,051-$80,138 and ether down 3.8% at $2,314; CoinDesk put bitcoin at $79,700, down 2.2%; Yahoo Finance had it at $79,464, down 2.48% and at its lowest since Sept. 18, with ether at $2,288.73, down 4.71% to a roughly two-month low. Solana fell 5.20% to $98.92 and Zcash fell 8.39% to $1,124.36, the steepest drop among the top 10 assets, per Yahoo Finance. Total crypto market capitalization fell 4.06% to $2.72 trillion, about 1% above the $2.69 trillion low hit Oct. 8 before a Trump pledge on Iran eased pressure, per Yahoo Finance.

ETF outflows and Hayes steps back

Spot bitcoin ETFs posted $137.94 million in net outflows Friday, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $110.34 million (80% of the total) and Fidelity’s FBTC for $31.78 million, partly offset by $4.19 million in inflows to Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, per SoSoValue data via The Block. That followed a $635.49 million outflow Thursday. The funds had taken in $1.078 billion from Monday through Wednesday, leaving them with $304.73 million in net inflows for the week and $104.43 billion in total net assets as of Friday, roughly flat on the week. Spot ether ETFs saw $4.35 million in Friday inflows, not enough to offset a $220.60 million weekly net outflow; the ether funds have logged outflows on 14 of 17 October trading days, totaling $1.175 billion. Bitcoin also slid Thursday alongside a tech stock sell-off, per The Block.

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s co-founder, said early Saturday he had closed the directional book at Maelstrom, his family office. “I dumped it all,” he wrote on X at 2:18 a.m. ET, adding he took profits on ETH, ENA, UNI “and other shitcoins.” He wrote: “I think we gotta go down to go up,” and said “it looks a bit dicey out there in macro and geopolitical land,” adding he would “sit on the sidelines and wait for the all clear signal.”

Geopolitical backdrop

The U.S. is evacuating personnel from embassies and military bases across the Middle East on intelligence suggesting Iran is preparing attacks against Americans, the Wall Street Journal reported, per CoinDesk. Jay Clayton, director of national intelligence, wrote in a Friday memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio that “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel” and that “the lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries.” The evacuations go beyond earlier reports this week that the U.S. had ordered some diplomatic staff out of Saudi Arabia. President Trump, at a Florida rally Friday, threatened renewed action against Iran after the midterms, saying “we may do another little ‘Epic Fury.’”

fxdailyreport noted that market discussion on X linked the sell-off to U.S.-Iran tensions but said that link hasn’t been established as the sole driver, pointing also to leveraged positioning and broad risk aversion.

What to watch

  • Analyst Benjamin Cowen said a weekly close below $83,000 on Oct. 25 would support his bearish scenario, voided if bitcoin climbs back above $83,000 and holds, per Yahoo Finance.
  • BeInCrypto’s analysis flagged $77,876 as the next downside level, with a support zone between roughly $76,700 and $72,500.
  • fxdailyreport said bitcoin lost its 50-day moving average support at $80,800, with next support at $79,000-$79,200 and a break exposing $78,000-$77,500; daily RSI sits in the high-30s to low-40s, approaching but not deeply oversold.
  • The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27-28, with September PCE inflation data due Oct. 29, per Yahoo Finance.
  • Brent crude settled at $116.72 on Friday, a level Yahoo Finance said could keep inflation elevated.

Sources