Bitcoin cleared out leveraged bets, then bounced, but the positioning behind the bounce still points lower

Bitcoin shed more than $1 billion in leveraged positions over 24 hours this week, and the recovery that followed hasn’t erased the caution building in positioning data. Prediction market Myriad now puts 67% odds on Bitcoin trading at or below $80,000 again before October ends, according to Decrypt. That’s a specific, dated bet against the bounce holding, not just a mood shift.

The liquidation event itself was the largest in dollar terms since late August. CoinGlass data cited by Cointelegraph put total crypto liquidations at $1.09 billion in the 24 hours to 10am UTC Friday, with long positions accounting for $1.05 billion of that total. Bitcoin ETFs added their own pressure, shedding $484.9 million on Wednesday, the worst single day since June 25, and a further $244 million on Thursday, per Decrypt’s ETF tracker.

Key Takeaways

  • Crypto liquidations hit $1.09 billion in the 24 hours to 10am UTC Friday, the largest daily tally since Aug. 21, according to Cointelegraph.
  • Bitcoin fell to $80,350 to $80,427 on Thursday depending on the source, then recovered; Decrypt had BTC at $82,837 on Friday, up 1.38% on the day.
  • Myriad prediction markets assign 67% odds Bitcoin trades at or below $80,000 before October ends, with 40% odds for $77,500 and 24% for $75,000.
  • Short-term holders sent 55,600 BTC to exchanges at a loss on Thursday, according to CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% and Fed minutes point to another hike by year-end, adding macro pressure alongside the ETF outflows.

The drop and the liquidation cascade

Bitcoin fell to $80,350 on Bitstamp, its lowest level since Sept. 18, according to Cointelegraph. Decrypt put the Thursday low slightly higher, at $80,427, describing it as the lowest level since early September. Both outlets agree the drop triggered forced selling: as leveraged long positions failed margin checks, exchanges closed them automatically, adding further selling pressure on the way down, a dynamic both KuCoin and AltcoinGordon describe as a liquidation cascade.

Cointelegraph linked the sell-off to reports that the US government moved more than 12,000 BTC it had previously confiscated, a transfer that can fuel potential sales. Onchain data added to the stress picture: CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha reported that short-term holders, entities holding Bitcoin for up to six months, sent 55,600 BTC to exchanges at a loss on Thursday. “Notably, Bitcoin was trading above $81,000, compared with $59,300 in June, a price difference exceeding 36%,” Taha wrote, noting the loss tally exceeded the figure from June 26, when Bitcoin fell below $60,000. CryptoQuant’s report added that “aggressive loss-driven selling by short-term participants can coincide with short-term capitulation, potentially exhausting weaker holders and creating conditions for a subsequent price recovery.”

Recovery levels diverge across outlets

Where the bounce landed depends on who’s reporting it. Decrypt had Bitcoin at $82,837 on Friday, up 1.38% on the day, with the daily candle ranging between $81,553 and $83,443. KuCoin and AltcoinGordon, both citing Cryptonews.com and Bitcoin.com News, reported a split: Cryptonews.com had Bitcoin briefly touching $81,000, while Bitcoin.com News described a stronger bounce to roughly $83,000 alongside signs that liquidation activity was cooling. Cointelegraph placed Friday trading around $82,500.

That $82,500 level matters beyond the headline number. Trader Rekt Capital, cited by Cointelegraph, called it the breakout point for an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that Bitcoin would need to hold as support to confirm a bullish reversal. “Bitcoin is currently failing its retest of ~$82500. Weekly Close below $82500 and turn it into resistance however and Bitcoin will be back in its Macro Accumulation Range,” Rekt Capital said Thursday on X.

Positioning still skews toward more downside

Sentiment has cooled without collapsing. The Fear & Greed Index fell to a neutral 56, down from 71, which marked “greed” territory on Oct. 2, per Decrypt. Total crypto market capitalization rose 2.1% to $2.89 trillion on Friday, still below the $3 trillion level it held a week earlier when Bitcoin was pressing against its yearly high.

Myriad’s October market gives 67% odds Bitcoin trades at or below $80,000 before the month ends, 40% odds for $77,500, and 24% odds for $75,000. A separate weekly Myriad market put only 49% odds on Bitcoin finishing the week above $87,500, implying traders expect price compression with room for further downside.

Technical readings are mixed rather than bearish. The Average Directional Index reads 37.9 on the daily chart, above the 25 level that confirms a real trend, with buyers (DI+) still above sellers (DI-), per Decrypt. The Relative Strength Index sits at 51.2, neutral, which Decrypt noted suggests Bitcoin is cooling from an overbought phase rather than breaking down. Bitwise Europe’s Luke Deans told Decrypt that the $83,000 zone, which combines the average ETF cost basis with a prior higher-high level, is the first test for the bounce. Reclaiming it would put $84,433 in play, while the September high of $87,354.33 remains the ceiling bulls need a daily close above.

Macro conditions aren’t helping. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32%, and Fed minutes point to another rate hike by year-end, per Decrypt, a backdrop that coincided with the ETF outflows on Wednesday and Thursday.

What to Watch

Rekt Capital flagged the weekly candle close as the next test: a close below $82,500 would turn that level into resistance and put Bitcoin back in what the trader called its macro accumulation range. On the upside, Bitwise’s Deans pointed to $83,000 as the first level to reclaim, then $84,433, with the September high of $87,354.33 as the ceiling for a daily close. Myriad’s prediction markets remain live through the rest of October, tracking whether Bitcoin revisits $80,000, $77,500 or $75,000.

Sources